Comparison of machine learning models for hemoglobin prediction in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis

To estimate the next hemoglobin (Hb) levels in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, predictive models were developed using various Machine Learning (ML) algorithms.

A total of 8,159 records from 2,104 MHD patients across 24 blood purification centers in Shenzhen were included. Eight ML algorithms were employed to develop prediction models: Linear Regression (LR), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso), Bayesian Ridge, Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Subsequently, the performance of models was evaluated and compared.

Among all the models, the MLP performed the best performance, with an R ² of 0.672, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.360 g/L, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 12.438 g/L. The analysis indicated that the most recent Hb value (Hb(t-1)) was the strongest predictor.

ML models based on demographic characteristics, dialysis records, and historical Hb data can effectively predict future Hb levels in MHD patients, which is helpful for early identification of anemia risk and timely clinical intervention.