A longitudinal psychological model of writing development: interactions among self-efficacy, regulation, and anxiety

This longitudinal study investigates the temporal relationships among writing self-efficacy, self-regulated writing strategies, writing anxiety, and writing performance in English-as-a-Foreign-Language (EFL) contexts. Guided by Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), Self-Regulated Learning (SRL) Theory, and Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), this study examines how motivational beliefs and regulatory behaviors interact over time to shape writing outcomes. Data were collected from 468 Mandarin-speaking EFL learners across three waves (T1-T3) over a 12-week semester, using validated instruments for self-efficacy, self-regulated strategies (cognitive, metacognitive, motivational regulation, and social behavior), and multidimensional writing anxiety, alongside a standardized performance assessment. Longitudinal structural equation modeling revealed that earlier writing self-efficacy was positively associated with subsequent use of self-regulated writing strategies, which in turn predicted lower levels of later writing anxiety and higher writing performance. Among strategy dimensions, metacognitive strategies exhibited the strongest mediating role, while somatic anxiety emerged as the most performance-impairing factor. Gender-based analyses indicated that male learners relied more on social-behavioral strategies, whereas female learners benefited more from metacognitive regulation. These findings advance theoretical understanding by demonstrating how belief-strategy-affect linkages unfold over time, providing empirical support for an integrative SCT-SRL-CLT framework. Pedagogically, the study underscores the importance of sustained instruction that strengthens self-efficacy, fosters metacognitive strategy use, and systematically manages writing-related anxiety to enhance long-term writing development in EFL learners.