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Global Marine Fishery Stock Productivity Under Climate Change
Shuyang Ma1, Geir Huse1, Kotaro Ono1
1Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.
Global Change Biology
|March 9, 2026
Summary
Climate change impacts marine fisheries productivity moderately, with varied effects on different fish stocks. Global fisheries productivity may decline slightly by 2100, contrasting with previous predictions of sharp decreases.
Area of Science:
- Marine Biology
- Climate Science
- Fisheries Management
Background:
- Marine capture fisheries are vital for global protein supply and livelihoods.
- Climate change poses a significant threat to fisheries, potentially requiring adjustments to management strategies.
- Stock productivity is an underutilized metric for assessing climate change impacts on fisheries.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of climate change on marine stock productivity.
- To project future changes in global fisheries harvest potential under different climate scenarios.
- To identify key biophysical drivers affecting fish stock productivity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized global fishery databases and earth system models.
- Applied advanced statistical methods to relate stock productivity estimates to environmental drivers.
- Hindcasted and projected stock productivity for 710 fish stocks globally.
Main Results:
- Global stock productivity showed regional heterogeneity and a slight decline from 1980-2022.
- Sea temperature and chlorophyll concentration significantly influenced productivity for approximately half of the assessed stocks.
- Projected global mean productivity decline of 3.0% under a business-as-usual scenario and 1.0% under a sustainability scenario by 2100.
Conclusions:
- Climate change effects on global fisheries productivity are projected to be moderate, with a balance of 'winners' and 'losers'.
- Findings contrast with previous studies predicting substantial declines in future fishery landings.
- Effective management strategies are crucial to mitigate regional impacts and ensure sustainable fisheries.
Keywords:
FAO areasenvironmental effectfish population dynamicsglobal warmingrisk assessmentsurplus productionMore Related Videos
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