Changes in alcohol expectancy activation patterns precede onset of alcohol use in children

Extensive research supports the conclusion that alcohol expectancies could be a causal variable influencing drinking behavior. Expectancies have been conceptualized as information stored in memory in relation to a specific concept, like alcohol. Successful methods have been developed to change expectancy processes to reduce drinking and related problems in adults. Development of effective expectancy-based prevention programming for children, however, would benefit from identification of expectancy activation patterns in memory preceding drinking initiation.

We analyzed data collected from children over the course of 4 years (fifth grade-ninth grade) to assess changes in expectancy activation before drinking initiation. Participants were grouped based on initiation of drinking in ninth grade (n = 309) or maintenance of abstinence through ninth grade (n = 507). We used Individual Differences Scaling, to map expectancies into memory network format and Preference Mapping was used to model likely patterns of expectancy activation.

A two-dimensional Individual Differences Scaling solution was optimal with bipolar dimensions representing positive-negative and arousing-sedating aspects of alcohol use. Abstainers showed little change from fifth grade through ninth grade. In contrast, dimension emphasis and activation patterns changed substantially preceding drinking initiation for those who started drinking in ninth grade.

Results suggest changes in expectancy activation patterns precede onset of alcohol use in children. Implementation of prevention programming focused on preventing this shift in expectancies could further reduce early onset of drinking and associated negative consequences. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).