Land use and land cover change dynamics and prediction scenario in the Mahananda River basin: insights into...

Globally, land use land cover (LULC) changes are recognized as a key factor contributing to environmental changes. Understanding the LULC changes in river basin areas is essential for river basin management. The present study aims to analyze LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 in the lower part of the Mahananda River basin and predict future LULC scenarios for 2034. The study cast off Landsat imagery and random forest (RF) classification technique for past LULC classification, while the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MA) model was employed for future LULC prediction. Furthermore, a statistical technique, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), was utilized for CA-MC model validation. Results highlight a substantial reduction of vegetation cover of 2249.7 km² and barren land by 1774.08 km², while cultivated lands, settlement, and water body increased by 3389.75 km², 831.81 km², and 440.8 km², respectively, over the last three decades, revealing the influences of both natural disturbance and anthropogenic activities. The LULC classification's accuracy was assessed using Kappa coefficient and these values are above 80%, indicating that the LULC classifications in this study are highly reliable. The prediction results reveal a further decrease of vegetation cover at 503.53 km², a continuous increase of cultivation land at 4725.29 km², and a settlement area of 919.85 km² over the future decades. The ROC value of 0.71 suggests that the CA-MC model performs reliably in predicting future LULC scenarios, demonstrating acceptable model accuracy. These comprehensive assessments aid in the creation of suitable land management plans and policies to accomplish or uphold sustainable development in the Mahananda River basin.