Lessons learned using species' distribution models for conservation planning in the Golden Gate Biosphere reserve.

Area of Science:

• Ecological modeling
• Conservation biology
• Climate change impacts

Background:

• Protected areas are crucial for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• Understanding plant species' responses to global change is vital for conservation.
• Species' distribution models (SDMs) offer insights into future habitat suitability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess how climate change may affect suitable habitats for six dominant plant species in the Golden Gate Biosphere Network.
• To identify potential habitat expansion, contraction, and refugia under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Ensemble species' distribution models (SDMs) were employed.
• Six algorithms were used with presence-absence data and 23 environmental predictors (climate, topography, soils).
• Habitat suitability was projected to late-century climate conditions using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under RCP 8.5.

Main Results:

• Projected habitat changes varied by species, with some expanding and others contracting.
• Key climate variables and non-climatic factors like soils influenced habitat suitability.
• Uncertainty in precipitation projections significantly impacted model agreement.
• Habitat shifts were not consistently upslope or poleward.

Conclusions:

• SDMs provide a valuable baseline for conservation planning in protected areas, especially for identifying refugia.
• Conservation planning requires considering multi-scale dynamics beyond protected area boundaries.
• Climate change impacts on dominant plant species necessitate adaptive conservation strategies.