Crafting impact of crime on carbon intensity: An asymmetric analysis

This paper investigates an often-neglected determinant of environmental degradation: the role of criminal activity in shaping the carbon intensity. While existing research predominantly attributes emissions to energy use, industrial structure, and economic expansion, the influence of crime on carbon outcomes has received limited empirical attention. We address this gap by theorising and estimating the channels through which crime disrupts regulatory effectiveness, weakens institutional capacity, and induces environmentally harmful behaviours. The study makes three contributions. First, it identifies the direct effect of crime on carbon intensity within a coherent theoretical framework. Secondly, it develops a refined empirical model that isolates the mechanisms linking crime, institutional responses, and emissions. Thirdly, it implements an integrated approach combining time-series methods with dynamic panel estimators across twenty-four OECD countries from 2005 to 2020. The results show that crime significantly increases carbon intensity, whereas economic growth, trade openness, and strengthened law-enforcement capacity contribute to its reduction. Social factors, including education, public health, and living standards, further mitigate emissions. Interaction effects reveal that crime exacerbates the environmental consequences of economic expansion, although enhanced law-enforcement efforts moderate this impact. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of institutional quality in advancing effective environmental policy and promoting long-term ecological resilience.