The lingering shadow: Understanding the long-term impact of natural disasters on social trust

This study examines the impact of earthquakes on social trust in China. Leveraging the exogenous nature of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake and adopting a cohort difference-in-differences (Cohort DID) methodology, we identify the long-term causal effect of experiencing an earthquake during adolescence (ages 8-20) on individuals' subsequent social trust. Our findings demonstrate that adolescent exposure to the earthquake exerts a significantly negative long-term impact on social trust in adulthood. We reveal that this effect exhibits multifaceted manifestations: it is geographically concentrated in urban areas, more pronounced among males, and attenuated by political affiliation. Furthermore, reduced social interactions and eroded social trust constitute shared manifestations of latent psychological trauma arising from the disaster. These results highlight that natural disasters inflict enduring and multifaceted psychological scars on youth, underscoring the necessity of targeted mental health interventions for young disaster survivors in developing countries.