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A comparison between regional sea-level projections and observations
Carolina M L Camargo1, Victor Malagón-Santos2, Jeemijn Scheen2
1Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, USA.
Cambridge Prisms. Coastal Futures
|March 12, 2026
Summary
Climate model sea-level projections align well with satellite observations from 2007-2022. Low-frequency component analysis improved comparison, validating future sea-level change predictions.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Sea-level projections are crucial for coastal management.
- Validating recent climate model simulations against observations is challenging due to their present-day start.
- Satellite observations provide regional sea-level data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare regional sea-level change observations with climate model projections.
- To evaluate methods for reducing internal variability in observational data for better model comparison.
- To assess the accuracy of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report projections.
Main Methods:
- Compared satellite-derived sea-level change (2007-2022) with climate model projections.
- Tested three methods to reduce internal variability in observational data.
- Identified Low-Frequency Component Analysis (LFCA) as the most effective method for data filtering.
Main Results:
- Regional sea-level projections generally agree with LFCA-filtered observations across 96% of the ocean area.
- Projections for total sea level and the sterodynamic component showed regional over/underestimations.
- Mass-driven sea-level change projections tended to overestimate observations.
Conclusions:
- The study validates sea-level projections for the instrumental era.
- LFCA filtering enhances the reliability of comparing sea-level observations and model outputs.
- Findings increase confidence in climate models for predicting future sea-level rise.
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