Trends and projections in prostate cancer epidemiology in Thailand: A population-based cancer registry analysis

This study aimed to investigate trends in the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer (PCa) in Thailand from 1990 to 2017 and project future rates up to 2040. It also aimed to examine incidence and mortality trends across 12 health districts and Bangkok from 2012 to 2020.

Data on PCa cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2017 were obtained from Thailand's Population-based Cancer Registry. Age-specific incidence rates were adjusted to the Segi World Standard Population as recommended by the WHO. The joinpoint regression analysis identified significant changes in trends and estimated the annual percent change. Projections were made using the joinpoint regression model. District-specific incidence rates and mortality rates from 2012 to 2020 were calculated for 12 health districts and Bangkok.

From 1990 to 2017, 18 192 new PCa cases were diagnosed in Thailand, with 95% in men aged 50 years and older. The age-standardised incidence rate more than doubled from 3.84 to 7.72 cases per 100 000 person-years, with a significant estimated annual percent change of 2.7% (95% CI 1.7%-4.1%; p<0.05). Projections indicated the age-standardised incidence rate for men aged 50 years and older would rise from 8.3 cases per 100 000 person-years in 2018 to 15.4 by 2040. The 12 health districts and Bangkok showed variable incidence rates, with significant increases in several districts and fluctuating mortality rates (p<0.05).

PCa incidence rates and mortality rates in Thailand have significantly increased over the past decades. With an aging population, these trends are expected to continue, posing a growing public health challenge. These findings highlight the urgent need for effective cancer control strategies and updated epidemiological data to support policy-making.