All-cause health-adjusted life expectancy in Jiangxi Province, China, 2000-2030: systematic estimation and analysis

Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, this research aims to evaluate the progress in achieving the national "Healthy China 2030" all-cause health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) targets at the subnational level.

Based on provincial data collected between 2000 and 2020, we applied a simplified, validated model to estimate all-cause years lived with disability (YLD) rates. HALE was then calculated using the Sullivan method with provincial abridged life tables. Values for 2021-2030 were projected using the Lee-Carter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Missing data were handled via spline interpolation, and uncertainty was quantified via Monte Carlo simulation.

All-cause HALE in Jiangxi increased by 7.8 years from 2000 to 2020 and is projected to reach 71.6 years by 2030, meeting the national target despite a recent slowdown in growth. YLD rates declined in younger age groups but rose among those aged ≥80 years. Women consistently showed higher life expectancy and HALE than men, but accumulated more unhealthy life-years.

Jiangxi Province is on track to achieve the "Healthy China 2030" HALE target. Persistent age and gender disparities highlight the need for tailored interventions-particularly for women and the growing elderly population-to improve health-related quality of life.