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Climate Change Can Generate Enemy-Free Space for Crop-Feeding Herbivores
Kris A G Wyckhuys1,2,3,4, Gabor Pozsgai5, Elizabeth A Finch6,7,8,9
1Chrysalis Consulting, Danang, Vietnam.
Global Change Biology
|March 12, 2026
Summary
Climate change threatens food security by reducing natural pest control. Many pests will lose beneficial insects, potentially increasing crop losses globally.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Science
Background:
- Crop-feeding herbivores cause significant global yield losses, estimated at 20%.
- Biological control agents are crucial for regulating herbivore populations but are vulnerable to climate change.
- Climate change impacts are projected to worsen herbivore-induced crop damage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the impact of climate change on the richness of biological control agents for 14 key agricultural pests.
- To assess how climate change-driven range expansion affects the efficacy of natural pest regulation services.
- To identify pests and regions most vulnerable to climate change-induced alterations in biological control.
Main Methods:
- Utilized niche modeling to predict changes in biological control agent communities for 14 major pests.
- Analyzed projected shifts in parasitoid and predator associations under climate change scenarios.
- Evaluated changes in ant-pest interactions and their implications for biological control strength.
Main Results:
- 57% to 100% of analyzed pests are projected to lose vital parasitoid and predator associates due to climate change.
- Specific pests like the cassava mealybug may face reduced parasitoid pressure (27% decline).
- Cosmopolitan pests may experience decreased predator pressure (6-7%), potentially leading to 'enemy release' and increased crop damage.
Conclusions:
- Climate change significantly destabilizes biodiversity-based pest control in agricultural systems.
- Projected declines in natural enemies can exacerbate pest outbreaks and threaten global food security.
- Urgent, integrated, and nature-friendly strategies are needed to maintain effective pest management under environmental change.
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