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Updated: Jul 19, 2026
A Murine Model of Fetal Exposure to Maternal Inflammation to Study the Effects of Acute Chorioamnionitis on Newborn Intestinal Development
Published on: June 24, 2020
Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Predicting Chorioamnionitis in Patients with Term Premature
Huiqiao Gao1, Liyun Gong1, Yanfang Li1
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, People's Republic of China.
Objective:
This study aims to construct and validate a nomogram model based on clinical and laboratory indicators to predict the risk of histological chorioamnionitis in patients with premature rupture of membranes at term, and to evaluate its predictive efficacy and effectiveness.
Methods:
A total of 319 PROM patients admitted between May 2023 and December 2024 were randomly divided into a modeling group (n=221) and a validation group (n=98) at a 7:3 ratio. Based on placental and fetal membrane histopathology, the modeling group was classified into a non-HCA group (grade 0, n=138) and an HCA group (grades I-II, n=83).
Results:
Compared with the non-HCA group, patients in the HCA group had significantly higher rates of body temperature ≥37.3 °C, baseline fetal heart rate ≥160 beats/min, rupture-to-delivery time ≥12 h, cesarean delivery, WBC ≥15×109/L, neutrophil percentage ≥75%, and PCT ≥0.05 mg/L (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression identified body temperature ≥37.3 °C, cesarean delivery, WBC ≥15×109/L, neutrophil percentage ≥75%, and PCT ≥0.05 mg/L as independent risk factors for HCA (P<0.05). The AUC of the nomogram was 0.890 (95% CI: 0.805-0.913) in the modeling group and 0.885 (95% CI: 0.776-0.918) in the validation group. Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated good model fit (P>0.05). Decision curve analysis showed that within risk thresholds of 0.1-0.8 (modeling group) and 0.1-0.7 (validation group), the nomogram provided greater net clinical benefit than "treat-all" or "treat-none" strategies.
Conclusion:
Body temperature, delivery mode, WBC, neutrophil percentage, and PCT are significantly associated with HCA in PROM patients. The nomogram model shows good discrimination, calibration, and stability, and may assist in predicting HCA risk in clinical practice.
