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Eliciting a Willingness-To-Pay Threshold in Denmark: Analysis of Published Reimbursement Decisions
Niccolò Morgante1, Anna D Grootendorst1, Maria B Rocha1
1NHTA, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Value in Health Regional Issues
|March 13, 2026
Summary
This study elicits Denmark's implicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold for new medicines, finding a threshold of €116,122. Different thresholds exist for oncology versus other disease areas, influenced by patient population size.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmacoeconomics
- Health Technology Assessment
Background:
- Denmark lacks an official willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold for new inpatient medicines.
- Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are used in cost-effectiveness assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To elicit an implicit WTP threshold for new inpatient medicines in Denmark.
- To quantitatively analyze publicly available assessment reports to determine the WTP threshold.
Main Methods:
- Logistic regression analysis of ICERs and reimbursement decisions from the Danish Medicines Council database.
- Utilized Youden's index to identify the optimal probability cutoff for the WTP threshold.
- Explored variations in WTP thresholds by disease area and patient population size.
Main Results:
- An implicit WTP threshold of €116,122 was elicited.
- Statistically significant impact of ICER on reimbursement decisions was observed.
- Different WTP thresholds were identified for oncology compared to other disease areas, with larger patient populations associated with lower thresholds.
Conclusions:
- This study provides the first assessment of an implicit WTP threshold in Denmark.
- A quantitative, repeatable approach for WTP threshold assessment is presented.
- The methodology can be applied in different settings with available data.
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