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Tropical cyclone rainfall extends inland
E Deng1, Qian Xiang2, De-Hui Ouyang1
1State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Nature Communications
|March 14, 2026
Summary
Tropical cyclone rainfall is extending further inland globally. This trend, driven by warming oceans, increases flood risks for inland coastal communities.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Meteorology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall intensity over oceans is well-documented.
- Coastal regions face increasing flood risks from TC-induced rainfall.
- Inland areas beyond 100 km from coastlines are often unprepared for TC flooding.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess global shifts in terrestrial tropical cyclone rainfall, particularly heavy rainfall events.
- To determine if TC rainfall has extended inland globally and quantify this trend.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of global TC rainfall data from 1980 to 2023.
- Statistical assessment of the landward extent of heavy rainfall (≥30 mm per 3 h).
- Utilizing observations and model simulations to investigate contributing factors.
Main Results:
- Global TC rainfall has extended inland between 1980 and 2023.
- Northern Hemisphere continental coasts show an increase in heavy TC rainfall extent at 3.8 ± 1.8 km per decade.
- Nearshore sea-surface temperature (SST) warming is linked to this landward extension.
Conclusions:
- Tropical cyclone heavy rainfall is increasingly extending inland globally.
- Warming sea-surface temperatures and coastal urbanization are likely drivers of this phenomenon.
- The landward shift in TC rainfall poses escalating flood risks to inland coastal populations.
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