From Plains to Mountains: Results of Current and Future Climatic Suitability Analysis for Crocus sativus L....

This research assessed current and future climatic suitability for Crocus sativus L. cultivation across Italy, using species distribution models. A dataset of 721 georeferenced points from sites consistently producing top-quality saffron was combined with bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA v2.1 database. Habitat suitability was modelled with MaxEnt and projected under current (2025) climatic conditions and future scenarios for mid-century (2055) and late-century (2085), based on the GFDL-ESM4 model and the SSP3-7.0 emission scenario. The MaxEnt model showed moderate predictive performance (AUC = 0.73 ± 0.02; TSS = 0.37 ± 0.03), which is consistent with the broad ecological tolerance of C. sativus. Current suitable areas (90,049 km²) are mainly in central and northern Italy, especially along the hilly Apennines and much of the Po Plain. Response curves indicate that optimal saffron cultivation occurs mainly under moderately continental conditions, with moderate to high temperature seasonality (6.5-7.5 °C), cool winter temperatures (mean of the driest quarter 0-3.5 °C), and relatively high precipitation during the wettest month (150-250 mm). Future projections show an expansion of suitable areas (124,552 km² in 2055; 123,868 km² in 2085) and a spatial shift from lowlands and coasts toward hilly and mountain regions of the Apennines, the Alps, and the main islands. These findings can support farmers, land managers, and policy-makers in informed planning and sustainable management of saffron cultivation under climate change.