[Driving Factors and Decoupling Evolution Path of Carbon Emissions from the Paper Industry in Guangdong Province]

Exploring the carbon reduction pathways of the paper industry in key regions of China is of significant importance for achieving low-carbon sustainable development in the Chinese paper industry. Taking the paper industry in Guangdong Province as the research subject, this study employs the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to conduct continuous and phase-wise decomposition of the factors influencing carbon emissions based on its energy consumption characteristics. The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling status between the output of the paper industry and carbon emissions, and it is combined with the LMDI model to construct a decoupling effort model, thereby elucidating the extent of efforts made by each influencing factor towards achieving decoupling. The results indicate that during the period from 2007 to 2022, the effect of industrial output value was the main driving factor for the increase in carbon emissions in the paper industry, while the energy intensity effect served as the primary inhibitory factor. The energy structure effect and the carbon emission intensity effect of electricity were both secondary inhibitory factors. The paper industry predominantly experienced an evolutionary path from weak decoupling to strong decoupling and then to regressive decoupling. The carbon emission intensity effect of electricity and the energy structure effect primarily manifested as weak decoupling efforts. The decoupling effort index of energy intensity remained generally consistent with the changes in the overall decoupling effort index. Continuous improvement in various factors will play a positive role in promoting decoupling of carbon emissions. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the guidance for the reform and optimization of the paper industry structure and its green transformation and upgrading, thus facilitating its transition to a technology-intensive industry and fully achieving a strong decoupling between paper industry output and carbon emissions.