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[Spatio-temporal Evolution of Vegetation and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in Haihe River
Peng-Kai Liu1,2, Liang-Yi Rao1,2, Si-Yuan Li1,2
1School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Abstract:
It is of great significance for regional ecological construction to scientifically understand the spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation change and explore the differential response relationship between vegetation change and driving factors. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set and temperature and precipitation data set from 2000 to 2020, this study used Sen + MK trend test, Hurst index, and partial correlation analysis to analyze the time-varying law of vegetation in Haihe River Basin and the time-lag effect on different climatic factors. Combined with residual analysis, the influence mechanism of climate change and human activities on vegetation driving was discussed, and the contribution rate of the two to vegetation change was quantified. The results showed that: ① NDVI increased at a rate of 0.003 26 a-1 from 2000 to 2020. The CV value was between 0 and 1.42, with an average of 0.07. The area with low fluctuation and low fluctuation of NDVI accounted for 79.73%, and the overall stability was good. The area with an upward trend of NDVI in the future accounted for 51.11%. ② The lag periods of NDVI response to various climatic factors were different. The lag periods of temperature and precipitation were 3 months and 1 month, respectively, and the maximum partial correlation coefficient of temperature was -0.68 to 0.82. The maximum partial correlation coefficient of precipitation was 0.07 to 0.92. ③ The relative contribution rates of human activities and climate change to vegetation change accounted for 45.69% and 54.31%, respectively. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and protection in the Haihe River Basin.
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