[Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Changes in Vegetation Coverage and Driving Factors in the Bosten Lake Basin...

The Bosten Lake, as an ecological key hub in the arid region of Northwest China, has a relatively unique ecological environment, making it challenging to maintain ecological balance. Studying the dynamic changes of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Bosten Lake Basin and its driving factors is of great significance for maintaining the stability and sustainable development of the basin's ecosystem. Based on Landsat data from 2001 to 2023, the NDVI values of the Bosten Lake Basin were calculated. The Mann-Kendall trend significance test, Sen's slope estimation method, and Hurst index were used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of NDVI in the Bosten Lake Basin, and the relationship between climatic factors and NDVI was explored. The results showed that: ① The annual maximum NDVI in the Bosten Lake Basin generally showed an increasing trend, with a growth rate of 0.003 3 a^-1. The spatial distribution characteristics of NDVI were relatively obvious, mainly dominated by high vegetation coverage, with 52.18% of the area showing an increasing trend. ② Seasonally, the NDVI during the growing season showed an increasing trend, with the highest NDVI in summer and the lowest in spring, and the trend of summer NDVI changes was consistent with the annual maximum NDVI changes. ③ The Hurst index predicted that 34.72% of the area in the Bosten Lake Basin would show a degradation trend in NDVI, while 65.28% would show an improvement trend. ④ The annual maximum NDVI in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2001 to 2020 was positively correlated with rainfall, temperature, sunshine hours, and evaporation and significantly correlated with sunshine hours and total evaporation, with correlation coefficients of 0.374 and 0.494, respectively. Therefore, the NDVI in the Bosten Lake Basin has shown an improving trend over the past 23 years, positively correlated with climatic factors. This study provides a scientific basis for the ecological environment construction, ecosystem management, and ecological balance maintenance in the Bosten Lake Basin.