[Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecological Resilience and Multi-scenario Evolutionary Simulation in Shenyang]

The study of ecological resilience is of great significance in promoting the sustainable development of ecosystems and providing ecological support for socio-economic activities. Based on the three dimensions of resistance, adaptability, and resilience, a potential-elastic-stability ecological resilience evaluation model was constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological resilience in Shenyang from 1990 to 2020. Additionally, the MOP-PLUS model was coupled to simulate the level of ecological resilience under different development scenarios for Shenyang in 2030. The results show that: ① From 1990 to 2020, the overall ecological resilience level of Shenyang showed a downward trend, with a stable spatial pattern of potential, stability, and resilience and similar distributional characteristics. ② From 1990 to 2020, the northeast and southeast low hills of Shenyang, as well as the watershed areas, exhibited higher toughness, while the central city and county built-up areas had lower toughness, with a tendency for this pattern to expand to the periphery. ③ Simulation of different development scenarios showed that the economic priority development scenario had the lowest ecological toughness, the ecological priority development scenario had the highest ecological toughness, and the coordinated development scenario, which took both economic and ecological development into account, resulted in ecological toughness at an intermediate level. However, the regional development advantages in the coordinated development scenario were greater, representing the best development path for the future.