Biological traits predict species' time-varying responses to multiple global change drivers

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Biodiversity Research

Background:

• Global change drivers are causing rapid biodiversity loss.
• Predicting species' responses to environmental change is complex due to dynamic, state-dependent ecological processes.
• Real-world ecosystem responses often differ from controlled experiments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how biological traits influence species' sensitivity to environmental drivers over time.
• To analyze the mean and variability of species' sensitivity to environmental change.
• To develop a framework linking biological traits to long-term environmental responses.

Main Methods:

• Nonlinear time series analysis of a multi-decadal, high-resolution dataset.
• Inclusion of climate, freshwater, sediment variables, and estuarine macroinvertebrate abundance.
• Linking biological traits (body size, mobility, lifespan) to species' environmental sensitivity.

Main Results:

• Key biological traits predict the mean and variability of species' sensitivity to environmental drivers.
• Smaller-bodied or less mobile species showed negative responses to warming.
• Lifespan was strongly associated with the temporal variability of species sensitivity; shorter-lived species exhibited greater fluctuations.

Conclusions:

• Biological traits are crucial for understanding species' long-term environmental responses and their variability.
• Findings highlight the limitations of short-term or lab-based studies for predicting real-world ecological dynamics.
• A trait-based framework can improve predictions of species' trajectories under global change.