Redefining water scarcity through the integrated water strategic resilience index amid climate and conflict pressures

Water scarcity is a dynamic condition influenced by a variety of factors, including environmental variables but also political, economic, technological, and social variables. This research reflects the intersection of natural resources, governance, and human systems. Redefining water scarcity is a crucial factor for greater sustainable management in the face of increasing climate variability and geopolitical stress. The traditional water scarcity indices overlook the cumulative impact of climate change, socio-economic patterns, governance, and policies. To bridge this gap, we propose the Integrated Water Strategic Resilience Index (IWSRI), a novel, multidisciplinary index that quantifies water scarcity on the basis of water availability, quality, climate resilience, and socio-political considerations. By integrating hydrological, environmental, and socio-political factors, IWSRI can potentially serve policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders with an interdisciplinary tool for strategic water resource planning. This study outlines the theoretical and mathematical foundations of IWSRI, highlighting its ability to enhance decision-making in transboundary water management, disaster preparedness, and sustainable development. The application of IWSRI is particularly relevant for regions facing severe water stress and political instability, where water availability is both an environmental and security challenge. MENA countries, Israel, Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE possess high water resilience due to solid infrastructure and good governance, while Yemen, Syria, and Libya possess low resilience, driven by conflict and poor management. Egypt, Iran, and Algeria demonstrate moderate resilience due to potential in water management policy. In this respect, while emphasizing its broader applicability as a global tool for assessing water scarcity resilience, this research applies the IWSRI to the MENA region, as its climate, socio-political instability, and regional water stress make it a relevant case study to test its overall efficacy.