Climate change-driven expansion of goosegrass highlights risks to global food production

Climate change and the spread of herbicide-resistant weeds pose increasing risks to global food security. Eleusine indica (goosegrass) is a globally invasive species characterized by broad geographic distribution, high ecological plasticity, and multiple resistance mechanisms. This study evaluated the current and future climatic suitability of E. indica at a global scale under climate change scenarios.

Ensemble ecological niche models calibrated with georeferenced occurrence records and climatic predictors showed excellent performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.999; true skill statistic (TSS)/kappa = 0.980), with low omission rates and high spatial agreement among algorithms (Bioclim, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Maxent). Current projections indicate widespread suitability across tropical and subtropical regions, particularly in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Future projections under SSP245 and SSP585 for 2050 and 2090 suggest a gradual expansion toward higher latitudes, with increased suitability in temperate regions such as the US Corn Belt, the Mediterranean Basin, and East Asia, especially under SSP585 by 2090. Overlap analyses identified substantial vulnerability in major soybean-producing regions, including Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and Southeast Asia.

Climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of E. indica, increasing invasion risk in key agricultural regions while maintaining broad climatic stability across its current range. These findings emphasize the need for early detection, continuous monitoring, and integrated weed management strategies to mitigate long-term agronomic and food security risks posed by this globally invasive species. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.