Associations of human mobility patterns with dengue fever in China: A spatiotemporal modeling analysis from 2005 to...

Human mobility may facilitate dengue transmission, but the contributions of different mobility patterns in China remain unclear.

We collected dengue data from 2005 to 2023 in China and applied the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify high-incidence provinces. A generalized additive model was used to quantify the effects of intra-provincial, inter-provincial, and international inflows on dengue incidence in high-incidence provinces. Inflows from Southeast Asia were further assessed in Guangdong and Yunnan, where most imported cases are reported.

Dengue distribution expanded northward in China, with high-incidence clusters in Yunnan and southeastern coastal provinces. All patterns of inflow were positively associated with increased dengue risk, with consistent lag effects from day 0 to day 14. International inflow showed the strongest association, with the highest relative risk (RR) in Yunnan (RR = 2.95; 95% CI: 2.68-3.25). The inflows from Southeast Asia were significantly associated with dengue fever in Guangdong (RR = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.81-1.90) and Yunnan (RR = 2.99; 95% CI: 2.48-3.60).

The three population mobility patterns play key roles in dengue transmission in China, which underscores the need for differentiated prevention strategies and collaboration with transportation and customs departments to curb dengue fever at an early stage.