Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

Area of Science:

• Climate science
• Ecology
• Environmental policy

Background:

• Land use management is crucial for addressing climate change and biodiversity loss.
• International targets necessitate significant land system transformations for conservation, restoration, and sustainable agriculture.
• Land-atmosphere exchanges are affected by land use changes, influencing regional climate via albedo and evapotranspiration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the mid-century European climate impacts of land use management aligned with global biodiversity and climate targets.
• To assess how different value-based approaches to land use (relational, intrinsic, ecosystem services) influence climate and biodiversity outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Earth System Modelling combined with detailed projections of land use, habitat, and species distribution.
• Simulated European land use scenarios consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions pathway.

Main Results:

• Land use policies prioritizing relational values (Nature as Culture) could exacerbate warming and drying trends in Europe.
• Implementing intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) approaches showed fewer adverse climate adaptation and mitigation challenges.
• Different land management strategies yield distinct climate feedbacks, impacting biodiversity and human well-being.

Conclusions:

• Integrative land use scenarios are essential for simultaneously enhancing biodiversity and stabilizing climate.
• Policy implementation requires careful consideration of value systems and their atmospheric feedbacks.
• Navigating trade-offs in land use policy is critical for effective European climate adaptation and conservation.