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Assessing the Potential Impact of a Kidney Exchange Program in Mexico
Roger Z Ríos-Mercado1, Michel A Herrera-Medrano2, Diana L Huerta-Muñoz1
1Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza, Mexico.
Clinical Transplantation
|March 18, 2026
Summary
Implementing a kidney exchange program in Mexico could increase living-donor kidney transplants by 20%. This program matches altruistic donors with incompatible recipients, potentially reducing the growing waiting list and long-term costs.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Transplantation Surgery
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Over 15,000 patients in Mexico await kidney transplants, with insufficient deceased donor organs.
- Living donor kidney exchange programs can increase transplant rates by matching incompatible donor-recipient pairs and altruistic donors.
- Successful kidney exchange programs exist internationally, demonstrating program viability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the potential impact of establishing a kidney exchange program in Mexico.
- To estimate the increase in living-donor kidney transplants achievable through such a program.
- To assess the implications for the kidney transplant waiting list and associated costs.
Main Methods:
- Simulated kidney exchange scenarios in Mexico using population distribution data.
- Employed an optimization model to maximize compatible patient-donor matchings.
- Evaluated three distinct implementation scenarios.
Main Results:
- An estimated 45% of patients on the waiting list have an incompatible living donor.
- Approximately 995 transplant candidates with available living donors are added to the waiting list annually.
- A kidney exchange program could potentially increase living-donor kidney transplants by up to 20%.
Conclusions:
- Implementing a kidney exchange program in Mexico may decrease the growth of the transplant waiting list.
- The program has the potential for long-term cost reduction in kidney transplantation.
- Program success hinges on sufficient participation from incompatible pairs and their sustained engagement.
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