Assessing the Potential Impact of a Kidney Exchange Program in Mexico

In Mexico, more than 15,000 patients are waiting for a kidney transplant, and there are not enough kidneys from deceased donors to transplant them. A kidney exchange program could increase kidney transplants from living donors by matching altruistic living donors and biologically incompatible donor-recipient pairs. Several countries have implemented successful kidney exchange programs. We evaluated the impact of implementing a kidney exchange program in Mexico.

We simulated kidney exchange in Mexico using data from Mexican population distributions. We used an optimization model to maximize the number of compatible patient-donor matchings. Three different scenarios were evaluated.

We estimated that almost 45% of patients on the waiting list have an incompatible donor, and 995 transplant candidates who have a living donor available are added to the waiting list annually. If a kidney exchange program were established in Mexico, the number of living-donor transplants could increase by up to 20%.

Implementing kidney exchange in the country may reduce the increase in the number of recipients on the waiting list and reduce costs in the long term. To succeed, the program must not only draw sufficient participation from incompatible pairs, but also ensure that these pairs remain in the program even if they have to wait to be matched.