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Real-time outlier detection in digital PCR data for wastewater-based pathogen surveillance.

Rachel E McLeod1, Timothy R Julian2, Tanja Stadler3

  • 1Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland; Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland.

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Summary

Wastewater-based epidemiology tracks infectious diseases. A new method quickly detects outlier data in wastewater samples, improving the accuracy of real-time disease trend analysis for public health.

Keywords:
Digital PCROutlier detectionReal-time monitoringWastewater-based epidemiology

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental microbiology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public health surveillance

Background:

  • Wastewater-based epidemiology monitors infectious disease spread using wastewater analysis.
  • Longitudinal pathogen data in wastewater correlates with disease incidence and epidemic growth indicators.
  • Accurate real-time trend estimation is crucial for public health decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a fast and simple outlier detection method for digital PCR wastewater measurements.
  • To evaluate the method's effectiveness in improving real-time epidemiological trend estimates.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed a novel, rapid outlier detection algorithm for digital PCR data from wastewater.
  • Assessed the impact of outlier removal on real-time trend estimation accuracy.
  • Compared real-time estimates with retrospective trend analysis.

Main Results:

  • The proposed method effectively identifies outliers in real-time wastewater monitoring.
  • Removing identified outliers significantly improves the representativeness of real-time trend estimates.
  • The method enhances data quality for reliable public health decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • A simple, fast outlier detection method enhances the reliability of wastewater-based epidemiology.
  • Improved data quality supports more accurate public health interventions and disease surveillance.
  • This approach offers a practical tool for laboratories analyzing time-series wastewater data.