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Spatial Modeling of Anthrax Risk in India's Agro-Climatic Zones: A Future Perspective.

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Climate change impacts anthrax outbreaks in India, especially in vulnerable communities. Understanding climate variables and biodiversity is key to mitigating disease spread and enhancing livestock health.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Climate change is altering ecosystems, increasing risks to human and animal health from emerging zoonotic diseases like anthrax.
  • Anthrax outbreaks disproportionately affect vulnerable pastoralist communities, particularly in regions experiencing rapid climate shifts.
  • Understanding the influence of climate variables on anthrax distribution is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess how changing climatic variables influence the geographical spread of anthrax outbreaks in India.
  • To compare the impact of climate variables with traditional factors (livestock distribution, soil moisture) on anthrax risk.
  • To predict anthrax suitability under Indian climatic conditions using machine learning.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized MaxEnt, a machine learning model, to predict anthrax suitability.
  • Analyzed the influence of climatic variables including rainfall, soil moisture, soil pH, temperature humidity index (THI), and land surface temperature (LST).
  • Compared climate variable impacts with livestock density and soil-moisture balance.

Main Results:

  • Identified rainfall, soil moisture, soil pH, THI, LST, and livestock density as critical factors in modeling anthrax suitability.
  • Highlighted the significant role of warming climatic events (heatwaves, droughts, floods) in shaping anthrax ecology in India.
  • Confirmed that climate variables are more influential than traditional factors in determining anthrax risk.

Conclusions:

  • Warming climate events and extreme weather significantly influence anthrax distribution in India.
  • Conserving megafauna diversity and enhancing livestock health in small to medium herds can mitigate anthrax risks.
  • Biodiversity conservation and improved livestock management are vital strategies for reducing future anthrax incidences.