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Climate-induced shifts in cod spawning phenology across the North Atlantic
Claire Pollet-Calderini1,2, Richard Kirby3, Jérôme Castant4
1UMR 8187, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences (Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, Université de Lille, CNRS, IRD), Wimereux, HDF, France. Claire.Pollet@uqar.ca.
Scientific Reports
|March 19, 2026
Summary
Climate change impacts Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) spawning differently across regions. While some stocks may adapt, others face reduced spawning due to warming, highlighting complex interactions affecting fish regeneration.
Area of Science:
- Marine Biology
- Climate Science
- Fisheries Management
Background:
- Spawning is crucial for regenerating fish stocks.
- Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a commercially important species facing exploitation and climate change.
- Understanding climate impacts on spawning phenology is vital for stock management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effects of climate change on Atlantic cod spawning phenology.
- To model daily cod egg occurrences as a proxy for spawning across the North Atlantic.
- To predict differential climate change outcomes for distinct cod stocks.
Main Methods:
- Developed a model to predict daily Atlantic cod egg occurrences.
- Validated the model against basin-scale observations, achieving 84% concordance.
- Compared model performance and climate impacts on cod stocks in eastern Newfoundland and the North Sea.
Main Results:
- Predicted differing climate change impacts on western (eastern Newfoundland) and eastern (North Sea) cod stocks.
- Observed a phenological shift in spawning in eastern Newfoundland, within the cod's thermal niche.
- Found no phenological adjustment in the North Sea, leading to significant spawning reduction due to warmer temperatures.
Conclusions:
- Climate change affects Atlantic cod spawning phenology variably, with potential for adaptation in some regions but not others.
- The model explains North Sea cod stock fluctuations better than eastern Newfoundland, suggesting other factors like overfishing and trophodynamics are significant.
- Improved understanding of climate change and other drivers' interactions is essential for predicting future cod stock dynamics.
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