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Separation and Identification of Conventional Microplastics from Farmland Soils
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From mapping to modelling: the evolving multidimensional microplastic risks in China's farmlands.

Lu Zhao1, Junbo Xu2, Xiaowei Ding3

  • 1Interdisciplinary Research Academy, Zhejiang Shuren University, 310015, Hangzhou, China.

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Summary

Microplastic pollution in agricultural soils is widespread, with socioeconomic factors and geographic location significantly influencing future risks. Projections show a shift in high-risk areas by 2050, driven by development pathways.

Keywords:
Machine learningMultidimensional riskShared socioeconomic pathwaysSoil microplastics

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Soil Science
  • Pollution Research

Background:

  • Agricultural soils are significant sinks for microplastic (MP) pollution, but the drivers of MP risks are not fully understood.
  • Predicting future MP risks requires understanding socioeconomic influences on contamination levels.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess widespread microplastic contamination in China's agricultural soils.
  • To develop and apply a composite risk index (MultiMP) for multidimensional MP risk assessment.
  • To identify key drivers of MP risks and project future trends under different socioeconomic scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • National-scale survey of agricultural soils using Laser Direct Infrared Spectroscopy (LDIR).
  • Development of a composite MultiMP risk index integrating abundance, morphology, size, and polymer type.
  • Application of machine learning (ML) models, including LightGBM, for risk prediction and driver analysis.
  • Ensemble projections using five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2021 to 2050.

Main Results:

  • Widespread MP contamination detected, ranging from 2.50×10^4 to 1.39×10^6 items/kg.
  • 70.1% of surveyed sites face moderate MP risk.
  • Key drivers include longitude, PM2.5, agricultural film usage, GDP per capita, and population density.
  • High-risk hotspots identified at the intersection of high longitude and significant agricultural film usage.
  • Future MP risks show strong dependence on socioeconomic pathways, with SSP5 projecting higher risks than SSP1.
  • A regional risk re-ranking is projected by 2050, with North China surpassing East China.

Conclusions:

  • Microplastic pollution in agricultural soils is a complex issue driven by both environmental and socioeconomic factors.
  • Future microplastic risks are highly sensitive to socioeconomic development pathways and geographic constraints.
  • Static emissions-based risk assessments are insufficient; dynamic, integrated approaches are needed to manage future microplastic threats.