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Stronger ENSO-induced global SST variability in a warming climate
Seung-Jae Hong1, Geon-Il Kim2, Yechul Shin1
1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Nature Communications
|March 20, 2026
Summary
Climate models project amplified El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on global sea surface temperature (SST) due to greenhouse warming. Future El Niño events may intensify regional climate effects through stronger atmospheric teleconnections and air-sea interactions.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability.
- Understanding ENSO's response to climate change is crucial for future climate projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how greenhouse warming affects ENSO's influence on global sea surface temperature (SST).
- To identify the key mechanisms driving projected changes in ENSO's global impact.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate model projections under greenhouse warming scenarios.
- Examination of changes in ENSO-related surface wind speed and air-sea humidity differences.
Main Results:
- Climate models robustly project an amplification of ENSO's impact on global SST.
- Amplification is driven by changes in El Niño-induced surface winds and air-sea humidity.
- Increased global SST contributes to altered air-sea humidity differences.
Conclusions:
- Future El Niño events are projected to have stronger regional climate impacts.
- Amplified impacts result from enhanced atmospheric teleconnections and reinforced local air-sea interactions.
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