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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Comparison of Resampling Algorithms to Address Class Imbalance when Developing Machine Learning Models to Predict

Daniel Lowell Weller1,2,3, Tanzy M T Love1, Martin Wiedmann3

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Summary

Predictive models can assess Listeria contamination in agricultural water, outperforming E. coli testing. Machine learning, particularly random forests with SMOTE resampling and spatial features, offers a promising alternative for food safety monitoring.

Keywords:
ListeriaListeria (L.) monocytogenesSMOTE (synthetic minority over-sampling technique)agricultural waterclass imbalancefood safetymachine learningpredictive modeling

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Area of Science:

  • Food Safety
  • Microbiology
  • Machine Learning

Background:

  • Current E. coli testing for agricultural water safety has limitations.
  • Predictive models show potential but require validation for specific pathogens and imbalanced data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate predictive models for Listeria contamination in agricultural water.
  • To assess the impact of resampling techniques on model performance.

Main Methods:

  • Developed and compared machine learning models (random forest, regression) using microbial, physicochemical, spatial, and weather features.
  • Employed resampling methods (none, oversampling, SMOTE) to handle imbalanced datasets.
  • Validated models against E. coli baseline models.

Main Results:

  • Machine learning models, especially random forests, outperformed E. coli baseline models.
  • SMOTE resampling yielded more accurate predictions than oversampling.
  • Spatial and physicochemical features were key predictors for nonpathogenic Listeria and L. monocytogenes, respectively.

Conclusions:

  • Predictive models offer a viable alternative to E. coli testing for agricultural water safety.
  • Random forest learners with SMOTE resampling and relevant features can effectively predict Listeria contamination.
  • Findings support integrating predictive models into on-farm food safety management programs.