Researcher population pyramids: Tracking demographic and gender trajectories across countries

Area of Science:

• Bibliometrics
• Sociology of Science
• Higher Education Studies

Background:

• Academic ecosystem sustainability depends on researcher demographics and gender balance.
• Assessing these dynamics for policy is often challenging and lacks timeliness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel researcher population pyramid framework for tracking demographic and gender trajectories.
• To provide a timely analysis of current and historical researcher demographics and gender balance across 58 countries.
• To enable future scenario simulations for academic talent pipelines.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing publication data to construct researcher population pyramids.
• Analyzing demographic and gender trends across different national research systems.
• Developing simulation models to project future scenarios based on current patterns.

Main Results:

• Identified three distinct research system patterns: Emerging (e.g., Arab countries) with widening gender gaps, Mature (e.g., USA) with narrowing gaps, and Rigid (e.g., Japan) lagging in both.
• Emerging systems show high researcher inflows but increasing gender disparities in productivity.
• Mature systems exhibit modest inflows and improving gender balance.

Conclusions:

• The proposed framework offers a robust diagnostic tool for policymakers globally.
• It aids in fostering sustainable talent pipelines and promoting gender equality in academia.
• Projections indicate that emerging systems may shift towards mature or rigid patterns by 2050 if current trends persist.