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Integrated Global Estimation of Terrestrial Carbon Efflux
Yves Uwiragiye1,2, Jing Wang3, Yuanyuan Huang4
1School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei, China.
Global Change Biology
|March 20, 2026
Summary
Accurate global carbon efflux (Cefflux) estimates are crucial for climate change. This study incorporates soil dissolution processes, revealing a global Cefflux of 96.52 Pg C year-1 and highlighting soil acidification
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Soil Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- Global carbon efflux (Cefflux) constitutes 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating accurate global estimates for climate change projections.
- Current Cefflux models are incomplete, omitting contributions from calcareous and acidic soils (Cefflux-calcareous and Cefflux-acidic).
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a comprehensive global terrestrial Cefflux estimate incorporating soil respiration, Cefflux-calcareous, and Cefflux-acidic.
- To identify key drivers and regulators of Cefflux in terrestrial ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 7562 field measurements from 2481 publications.
- Employed machine learning and structural equation modelling (SEM) to analyze data and identify drivers.
Main Results:
- Calculated a global terrestrial Cefflux of 96.52 Pg C year-1 (95% CI: 91.2–101.9 Pg C year-1).
- Found Cefflux-acidic and Cefflux-calcareous contributed 0.29% and 0.09% respectively, with soil respiration previously underestimating Cefflux by 0.4%.
- SEM identified direct drivers (respiration, carbon dissolution, liming) and indirect regulators (land productivity, soil properties, N fertilization).
Conclusions:
- Soil acidification poses a dual threat to crop yields and global warming.
- Integrating soil acidity neutralization into carbon dynamics models is essential for accurate Cefflux estimation and climate change mitigation.
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