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How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? An expert elicitation approach
Camilla Negri1,2, Golnaz Ezzati3, Philip M Haygarth4
1Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada.
Journal of Environmental Quality
|March 23, 2026
Summary
Phosphorus (P) sustainability faces challenges exacerbated by climate change. Addressing P dynamics in agricultural systems requires more transdisciplinary research and data collection for effective climate adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- Phosphorus (P) sustainability is a complex global challenge, significantly impacted by climate change.
- Interdisciplinary evidence on climate change effects and adaptation strategies for P dynamics in agricultural systems is currently lacking.
- Understanding baseline vs. managed system responses and biophysical-societal interactions is crucial for assessing climate change impacts on P.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the current state of knowledge within the scientific and industrial community regarding the impacts of climate change on phosphorus dynamics in agricultural systems.
- To identify knowledge gaps and confidence levels concerning climate change effects on P across soils, waters, and human dimensions.
- To highlight the need for increased visibility of P in climate change discourse and the establishment of transdisciplinary relationships.
Main Methods:
- A workshop involving academia and industry experts discussed climate change impacts on P.
- Participant knowledge and data availability were assessed using a matrix of importance and confidence.
- 320 statements were digitized, categorized into themes, and analyzed in the context of existing literature.
Main Results:
- The analysis reveals a developing understanding of the connections between P systems and climate among experts.
- Significant variation exists in the depth of topic-specific knowledge regarding climate change and P dynamics.
- The community's confidence and knowledge levels were mapped across various P-related climate change impacts.
Conclusions:
- Phosphorus management must be integrated into climate change discussions, necessitating transdisciplinary collaboration.
- Further data collection on circular economy and climate adaptation is recommended.
- Developing models and policies for adaptive P management, considering thresholds and socioeconomic factors, is essential to mitigate risks.
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