PhenoSS: Phenotype semantic similarity-based approach for rare disease prediction and patient clustering

Systematic clinical phenotyping using Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is central to rare disease diagnosis. However, current disease prioritization (ranking candidate diseases from HPO for a patient) methods face key challenges: they often fail to account for the hierarchical structure of HPO terms, ignore dependencies among correlated terms, and do not adjust for batch effects arising from systematic differences in phenotype documentation across cohorts, institutions, or clinicians. We aim to develop a scalable and statistically principled framework to address these limitations for rare disease prediction and patient stratification.

We developed PhenoSS, a Gaussian copula-based framework that models disease-specific marginal prevalence of HPO terms while capturing their joint dependencies through a multivariate normal distribution. Phenotype frequencies were estimated using external curated resources, including OARD (Open Annotations for Rare Diseases) and HPO annotations. PhenoSS supports both pair-wise phenotype similarity calculation for patient clustering and posterior odds estimation for patient-specific disease prioritization. A batch-effect correction module mitigates systematic phenotyping differences across datasets.

Across diverse simulation scenarios, PhenoSS demonstrated robust disease-prediction performance and consistently improved accuracy after batch-effect correction. In real electronic health record (EHR) data, PhenoSS identified clinically meaningful patient clusters and effectively distinguished patients with different rare diseases. In disease prioritization tasks, PhenoSS achieved competitive performance with existing methods, particularly for patients exhibiting sparse or noisy phenotype annotations.

PhenoSS provides a statistically interpretable framework for modeling phenotypic heterogeneity in rare disease research and is adaptable to other structured clinical vocabularies such as SNOMED-CT and ICD codes.