Nomogram Using Taurocholic Acid, Age, and Albumin to Predict HBV-Related Cirrhosis/HCC in CHB Patients

Progression to liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe epidemiological risk factor for chronic hepatitis B (CHB); therefore, effective monitoring strategies are urgently required. Dysregulation of bile acids (BAs) metabolism is crucial for aggravating the pathological processes of liver diseases. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk model based on the BAs signature to predict the likelihood of LC and HCC occurrence in CHB patients.

A retrospective analysis was conducted using the clinical data of 609 patients diagnosed with CHB, HBV-related LC, and HCC. Patients were randomly assigned to a training or validation set. Logistic regression analyses were employed in the training set to identify key variables and establish a nomogram risk model for predicting the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. Accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using a validation set.

Taurocholic acid level and age were independent risk factors, and serum albumin level was a protective factor against the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. A Nomogram risk model was developed using these three indicators, demonstrating a highly accurate and reliable ability to predict the progression from CHB to LC and HCC with good clinical validity and utility.

This study developed a nomogram incorporating BA markers, enabling precise prediction of LC and HCC in patients with CHB. This provided an accurate and accessible method for early screening and prevention.