A six years trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Central Ethiopia Region

Malaria continues to be the foremost deadly disease and a cause of substantial economic deficit in Ethiopia. Data from malaria monitoring programs can be used to assess prevalence and trends of the disease over time in a way to inform policy makers and prioritize control strategies. The current study assessed the malaria case trend between 2019 and 2024 based on data from 12 districts and two towns of Hadia, Gurage and Yem zones in Central Ethiopia Region.

A retrospective study design was employed to assess a six-year (2019-2024) trend of malaria cases in 12 districts and two towns selected purposively based on their location in the Ghibe valley and level of malaria burden with the support of local health authorities. District level aggregated malaria surveillance data was obtained from archives of the district and zonal health offices, carefully reviewed and analyzed. Descriptive statistics was used to calculate frequencies and percentages of seasonal and yearly malaria suspected as well as Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infected cases using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25 software. Pearson Chi-square (χ2) was used for the test of statistical differences between/among variables. A post-hoc analysis of pairwise comparisons was carried out for identifying the specific significant difference among the groups.

There were 86,604 (23.5%) Plasmodium positive individuals among the total 368,490 suspected in the previous six years period. Among the 86,604 Plasmodium positive cases, 61% were attributed to P. falciparum and 39% to P. vivax. The analysis showed increasing trend of the Plasmodium infected cases starting from 2019 with some fluctuations. The number of cases peaked in May (13,811;15.9%), autumn season (27,266; 31.5%) and spring season (25,555; 29.5% of Ethiopia. The distribution of P. falciparum and P. vivax cases differed significantly across the districts, months, seasons and years.

Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax are endemic in Hadia, Gurage and Yem zones of Central Ethiopia Region. The number of cases has been increasing since 2019 in the region and highest in May, June, October and September. Furthermore, the cases peaked during the autumn and spring Ethiopian seasons, which coincide with the key farming and harvesting seasons. There is a need to sustain and scale up existing malaria intervention measures.