Prediction of potential suitable areas for 5 common Coraebus species (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in China based on...

Climate change is expected to alter the spatial distribution of forest-associated insects, yet responses may vary among closely related species. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling framework to project current and future potential suitable areas for 5 Coraebus species (Coraebus acutus, C. cloueti, C. diminutus, C. quadriundulatus, and C. sauteri) in China under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitats were primarily concentrated in southeastern China, with species-specific differences in highly suitable areas. Future projections revealed scenario-dependent redistribution patterns. While total suitable areas showed moderate overall change, centroid migration displayed stage-specific displacement peaks, particularly under higher-emission scenarios. Temperature-related variables, especially indices describing thermal variability and extremes, consistently ranked among the most influential predictors, indicating that seasonal constraints play a central role in shaping distribution dynamics. Interspecific heterogeneity was evident, with species differing in both migration magnitude and temporal response patterns. Redistribution did not proceed linearly through time but exhibited mid-to-late-century intensification under certain emission pathways, suggesting potential threshold responses to climatic forcing. These findings highlight that climate-driven redistribution of wood-boring beetles may be species-specific and temporally variable. Incorporating multiple emission scenarios and species-level assessments can improve monitoring strategies and support adaptive forest management under changing climatic conditions.