Bridging China's Climate Targets and Mitigation Capacity through Sectoral Policy Implementation.

Area of Science:

• Climate change mitigation
• Energy systems analysis
• Environmental policy

Background:

• China's current policies have reduced carbon intensity and increased renewable capacity significantly.
• China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, supported by various climate policies.
• Uncertainty remains regarding the convergence of near-term actions with long-term carbon neutrality goals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the impact of sectoral policies (2019-2024) and their extensions on China's decarbonization.
• To assess the feasibility and equity of deep decarbonization pathways in China.
• To provide a framework for linking national targets with disaggregated policy and investment strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a policy-informed integrated assessment model with provincial detail.
• Analyzed sectoral policy measures and their plausible near-term extensions.
• Quantified impacts on national CO2 emission intensity and nonfossil energy share.

Main Results:

• Continued policy strengthening leads to a 12% fall in national CO2 emission intensity and a rise to 44% nonfossil energy share by 2035.
• Solar and wind expansion, alongside industrial and building efficiency, drive near-term reductions.
• Significant regional disparities in power sector investment requirements were identified, with some western provinces facing needs over 5% of GDP.

Conclusions:

• Near-term policies can accelerate China's decarbonization but require substantial and regionally differentiated investments.
• Deep decarbonization necessitates addressing regional investment burdens and ensuring equitable development.
• The study offers an actionable framework for assessing the feasibility and equity of China's climate targets.