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Prediction of Mortality in Iranian Elderly Using Frailty Index
Mehdi Norouzi1, Zahra Amiri1, Mohammad Hossein Madahali2
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Frailty significantly increases mortality risk in elderly Iranians. Early identification and management of frailty are crucial for improving health outcomes in older adults.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Frailty in older adults is linked to adverse outcomes, including mortality.
- Predicting mortality risk in elderly populations is essential for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict mortality rates in elderly Iranians using the Frailty Index.
- To assess the association between frailty and mortality in a nursing home population.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 3554 individuals aged 60+ in Iran (2020-2023).
- Frailty assessed using Fried's scale; survival analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression.
- Python 3.12 used for data analysis, including log-rank tests.
Main Results:
- 51.50% of participants were frail; 36.50% died during follow-up.
- Frail individuals had a 2.04 times higher mortality risk (Cox regression).
- Female sex, age >70, and comorbidities increased mortality; literacy was protective.
Conclusions:
- Frailty is a significant predictor of increased mortality in the elderly Iranian population.
- Early detection and management of frailty are vital for improving geriatric health outcomes.
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