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Updated: Mar 27, 2026
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Income Volatility During Early to Mid-adulthood and 10-year Memory Decline in a Longitudinal Synthetic Cohort
Katrina L Kezios1,2, Scott C Zimmerman2,3, Peter T Buto2,3
1From the Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY.
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
|March 26, 2026
Summary
Income volatility may impact midlife memory, but it does not appear to cause cognitive decline. This study used a synthetic cohort to analyze income instability and memory function in baby boomers.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Neuroscience
- Socioeconomic Determinants of Health
- Longitudinal Cohort Studies
Background:
- Income volatility's negative effects on midlife cognition are suspected but not well-established.
- Existing research lacks longitudinal data to investigate this relationship.
- A synthetic cohort approach can address data limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the association between income volatility and memory function in midlife.
- To determine if income volatility predicts cognitive decline over a 10-year period.
Main Methods:
- Linked two US cohorts (NLSY79 and HRS) to create a longitudinal synthetic cohort.
- Calculated income volatility from 1990-2010 in NLSY79 and assessed memory function in HRS from 2010-2020.
- Used linear mixed models to estimate the effect of income volatility on memory and decline, controlling for confounders.
Main Results:
- Higher income volatility was linked to lower baseline memory function.
- No significant association was found between income volatility and memory decline over 10 years.
- Results were partially attenuated after adjusting for earlier-life cognition.
Conclusions:
- Income volatility during early to mid-adulthood may affect midlife memory.
- The study did not find evidence that income volatility leads to memory decline.
- Findings are subject to assumptions regarding cohort linking and potential unmeasured confounders.
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