Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis

Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation, including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity forecasting.