On economic and environmental effects of expanding PV deployment in Poland

By means of using a unique dataset and input-output (IO) techniques this paper offers a first attempt to conduct a detailed assessment of the possible macroeconomic and environmental effects generated in the national economy of Poland by installation and use of photovoltaic infrastructure. The data comes from two sources: the most recent available macroeconomic data published by the Central Statistical Office of Poland and an original dataset developed by the Energy Transition Observatory (ETO) - a strategic project run between 2023 and 2025 by AGH University of Krakow, the Ministry of Climate and Environment of Poland, and the National Centre for Nuclear Research. To the best of our knowledge the ETO dataset is the very first attempt to collect environmental data on the size and sectoral distribution of CO₂ emissions, as well as sectoral CAPEX and OPEX data for three development scenarios and four capacity ranges of PV installations in Poland. These indicators were obtained from the National Chamber of Energy Clusters and Renewable Energy Sources and comprise actual data observed for 2021-2025 along with expert-based predictions defined for 2026-2040. Based on the compiled dataset, unit construction-stage IO multipliers and unit operational-stage IO multipliers were calculated using an extended input-output model, which set the ground for estimating the dynamics of three types of PV-induced macroeconomic effects as well as the carbon footprint for the three considered development scenarios of the PV sector in Poland until 2040. The results obtained can contribute to more effective energy policy-making in Poland as they show that development of PV industry in Poland will likely result in stable economic stimulus over the next 15 years. These effects are especially important in case of new jobs generated by investments and O&M of PV installation in Poland which - depending on the scenario examined - are about to reach the level of 20-40 thousands of full time contracts each year over the period 2026-2040. The outcomes obtained are therefore important from the perspective of ensuring fair energy transition in Poland.