Forecasting waste from key energy transition technologies in Italy

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Environmental Science
• Energy Policy

Background:

• The global energy transition necessitates increased demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) in low-carbon technologies.
• Current linear material flows in these technologies pose risks for waste management, resource security, and circular economy.
• End-of-life material streams from energy transition technologies are projected to surge significantly by mid-century.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate future end-of-life material waste in Italy from key energy transition technologies.
• To quantify the critical raw materials available in these future waste streams.
• To inform waste management planning, resource recovery, and circular economy strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a dynamic sales-stock-lifespan model to project waste generation.
• Integrated historical data and scenario-based inflows with Weibull lifetime distributions.
• Focused on four technologies: lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, photovoltaic panels, and wind turbine blades.

Main Results:

• Projected sharp growth in annual waste flows from 2030 to 2050 for all studied technologies.
• Estimated substantial increases in waste: battery waste to 551-736 kt, electric motors to 86 kt, PV panels to 245-269 kt, and wind turbine blades to 16 kt by 2050.
• Anticipated 390-510 kt of critical raw materials in end-of-life flows by 2050, indicating significant secondary resource potential.

Conclusions:

• Findings highlight the urgent need for robust waste management and recycling infrastructure in Italy.
• The projected waste streams represent a substantial opportunity for critical raw material recovery and circular economy implementation.
• Supports strategic planning for treatment capacity, regulatory frameworks, second-life applications, and advanced recycling.