Forecasting waste from key energy transition technologies in Italy

The global energy transition towards renewable and electrified systems is rapidly driving material demand, particularly for critical raw materials (CRMs) embedded in low-carbon technologies. While enabling decarbonization, these systems remain largely based on linear material flows, in which increasing volumes of primary resources are deployed and ultimately discarded, creating emerging risks related to waste management, resource security, and missed circular economy opportunities. By mid-century, end-of-life material streams from energy transition technologies are expected to increase by orders of magnitude, highlighting the need for robust quantification, for proper waste management planning and recovery. This study estimates future end-of-life materials in Italy from four key technologies: lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles and stationary energy storage systems, electric motors from electric vehicles, photovoltaic panels, and wind turbine blades. Projections are obtained using a dynamic sales-stock-lifespan model combining historical and scenario-based inflows with technology-specific Weibull lifetime distributions, aligned with Italy's climate neutrality pathways. Results indicate a sharp growth in annual waste flows from 2030 to 2050. Battery waste increases from approximately 27 kt in 2030 to 551-736 kt by 2050, electric motors waste rises from 6 kt in 2030 to 86 in 2050, photovoltaic panel waste from 81 to 88 kt to 245-269 and wind turbine blades waste from 8 kt to 16. Across all technologies, the projected end-of-life flows will contain approximately 390-510 kt of critical raw materials by 2050, representing a substantial secondary resource potential. The findings support planning for treatment capacity, regulatory traceability, second-life strategies, and advanced recycling pathways.