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Time-Varying Prognostic Impact of the Age×BUN/LVEF Index on Long-Term MACCE After ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction
Seda Elcim Yildirim1, Tarik Yildirim1, Mehmet Tolga Hekim1
1Department of Cardiology, School of Medicine, Balikesir University, 10145 Balikesir, Turkey.
Background:
Despite advances in reperfusion strategies, long-term major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) remain frequent after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Practical risk stratification tools applicable at presentation are therefore needed. We investigated the prognostic value of a simple composite index integrating age, blood urea nitrogen, and left ventricular ejection fraction (Age×BUN/LVEF) for predicting long-term MACCE in STEMI patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).
Methods:
This retrospective, single-center cohort study included 313 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI between 2020 and 2024. The Age×BUN/LVEF (AGEBUNeFR) index was calculated using age and admission blood urea nitrogen values and left ventricular ejection fraction assessed during index hospitalization. The primary outcome was long-term MACCE, defined as a composite of all-cause mortality, recurrent myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization. The median follow-up was 2.24 years (interquartile range 1.40-3.06).
Results:
During follow-up, 93 patients (29.7%) experienced MACCE. The AGEBUNeFR index was independently associated with MACCE after multivariable adjustment (adjusted HR 1.028 per unit increase, 95% CI 1.016-1.040; p < 0.001). Time-varying analyses demonstrated a dynamic prognostic effect, with significant associations in the early post-PCI period (p = 0.002) and a pronounced re-emergence of risk during late follow-up (>36 months; p < 0.001).
Conclusions:
The AGEBUNeFR index is a simple, readily available, and powerful predictor of long-term MACCE in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI. By integrating age, renal/hemodynamic stress, and cardiac function, this composite index provides dynamic and incremental prognostic information beyond conventional clinical models, supporting its potential role as a practical tool for long-term risk stratification after STEMI.
