Prediction of Adherence to an Online Wellness Program for People with Mobility Limitations: A Machine Learning...

Background/Objectives: People with mobility limitations face disproportionately high rates of chronic health conditions and demonstrate lower adherence to wellness interventions. Digital programs such as MENTOR offer accessible alternatives but often face high rates of attrition. This study applied machine learning (ML) methods to predict adherence to the eight-week MENTOR telewellness program and identify key predictors of participant attendance. Methods: Data were drawn from 1218 adults enrolled in MENTOR (2023-2024). Adherence was defined as the percentage of 40 sessions attended. Baseline demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, mindfulness, resilience, health status, and physical activity variables were included as predictors. Following preprocessing and imputation, 13 ML regression models were trained using an 80/20 train-test split. The best-performing model was identified using mean absolute error (MAE), followed by feature selection and SHAP interpretability analyses. Pairwise synergy analysis quantified interactions between top predictors. Results: Model performance was modest overall. Bayesian ridge regression achieved the best performance (MAE 20.98; RMSE 25.26; R² = 0.12). SHAP analyses revealed that education, race, emotional support, Area Deprivation Index, household size, mindfulness, life satisfaction, and disability onset were the strongest predictors of adherence. Higher emotional support, mindfulness, and life satisfaction were associated with greater adherence, while socioeconomic disadvantage predicted lower adherence. Synergy analyses showed the strongest predictive interactions between low education and psychosocial resources (emotional support and life satisfaction). Conclusions: Baseline characteristics alone modestly predicted adherence to a digital wellness program. However, psychosocial and socioeconomic factors emerged as meaningful predictors, underscoring the need for personalized support strategies to reduce dropout among participants with mobility limitations.