Potential for Distribution Expansion of Stephanitis chinensis in China Based on MaxEnt Model

The tea lace bug, Stephanitis chinensis, is an important pest in the southwest tea region in China. It has recently emerged in some parts of the tea areas, severely impacting the profitability of spring tea. To clarify the distribution dynamics of S. chinensis under current and future climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the distribution and dominant environmental factors of S. chinensis. The results show that the mean precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), annual precipitation (Bio12), and the variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4) are the dominant environmental factors affecting S. chinensis distribution. Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for S. chinensis are mainly distributed in East and South Asia, with only a small distribution in southern Europe, southeastern North America, and coastal areas of southeastern South America; the highly suitable habitats are primarily distributed in China, southern Japan, and southern South Korea. The total suitable area of S. chinensis accounts for approximately 28.58% of China's land area. The high-suitability regions are primarily concentrated in the Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu provinces. Under future climate conditions, the total suitable area of S. chinensis will increase to varying degrees, primarily expanding northward, with the extension of high-suitability areas mainly concentrated in Hubei, Anhui, and Henan. The migration distance of the geographical distribution center ranges between 32.27 km and 96.13 km, with a primary shift toward the northeast. This study predicts potential suitable areas for the tea lace bug under different climate change scenarios. Specifically, regions at the highest risk, such as the Hubei, Anhui, and Henan provinces, should enhance monitoring and early warning systems and implement timely prevention and control measures to ensure the safe production of tea.