Stable Longitudinal Screening of Latent Physiological Dysregulation from Psychometric Data Using Machine Learning

Physiological dysregulation arising from chronic stress is a key mechanism linking psychosocial factors to long-term health outcomes, yet early identification typically relies on invasive or resource-intensive measurements. This study evaluates whether high-dimensional psychometric survey data can support scalable, non-invasive screening for latent physiological dysregulation. Using longitudinal data from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Waves 2 and 3, we develop a screening-oriented modeling framework that separates longitudinal risk estimation from deployable screening model construction. Physiological targets are defined across inflammatory, metabolic, and neuroendocrine domains using three canonical allostatic load formulations. A teacher-ranking-pruning-student pipeline combines stable feature ranking, parsimony-driven dimensionality reduction, and knowledge distillation. Predictor dimensionality is reduced by more than an order of magnitude without loss of screening performance. Distilled student models consistently outperform linear, tree-based, and direct neural baselines, achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values up to approximately 0.78 and substantial precision-recall lift over baseline prevalence. Longitudinal information is exploited during model development but not required at inference, enabling deployment using psychometric data alone. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of non-invasive screening for latent physiological dysregulation and provide a generalizable framework for translating longitudinal cohort data into deployable population health tools.